Amazon created an ecommerce “holiday” as other marketplaces and retailers join in on the Prime Day sales event that is happening this week. And according to Adobe’s Prime predictions, sales generated this week will be the equivalent of two Black Fridays.
In addition to a record $23.8 billion in online spending from July 8 to 11, representing 28.4% growth year- over-year, Adobe expects steeper discounts; an increase in back-to-school shopping; continued growth in Buy Now Pay Later; and an increased impact of social media influencers on shopping behavior. It also expects a significant increase in shoppers’ use of generative AI.
The following is an excerpt of its press release announcing its predictions for this week’s Prime Day sales, including a breakdown by category:
“U.S. retailers are expected to drive a record $23.8 Billion in online spend from July 8 to 11, representing 28.4% growth year- over-year (YoY)—and $9.6 billion more than the comparable period last year. This is equivalent to two Black Fridays, which drove $10.8 billion in online spend during the 2024 holiday shopping season. Shopping on mobile devices is set to hit an all-time high, driving 52.5% of online sales (vs. desktop shopping) at $12.5 billion. This continues to be a growth driver for U.S. retailers, with more impulse shopping happening on mobile devices.
“Discounts are expected to remain at historically high levels—on par with the major deals consumers saw last year during the Prime Day event. Overall, discounts across U.S. retailers will be in the range of 10% to 24% (off listed price). Across categories, Adobe expects apparel to have the biggest deals at 24% (vs. 20% last year). Other categories with major discounts will include electronics at 22% (vs. 23%), televisions at 17% (vs. 16%), appliances at 16% (vs. 14%), toys at 15% (vs. 15%), furniture at 14% (vs. 16%), computers at 12% (vs. 11%), and sporting goods at 10% (vs. 11%).”
Adobe also expects shoppers’ use of gen-AI to increase:
“During the Prime Day event, Adobe expects traffic from generative AI sources to increase by 3,200% YoY. And while AI-driven traffic remains modest compared to other channels such as paid search or email, the growth shows the value consumers are seeing in leveraging AI to quickly find information on deals and product details.”
Adobe pointed to the results of a recent survey of 5,000 consumers to show how they used gen-AI for their shopping tasks:
- conducting research (55%)
- receiving product recommendations (47%)
- seeking deals (43%)
- getting present ideas (35%)
- finding unique products (35%)
- creating shopping lists (33%)
“Of those who have used AI for shopping, 92% said it enhanced their experience, with 87% saying that they are more likely to use AI for larger or more complex purchases,” according to the survey findings.
Adobe analyzes direct transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to US retail websites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.